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China: Post-Olympic Economy?
Canada ( Score Rank: #447 based on predictions in the last 30 days ) Canada  |  will close on 30-Sep-2009 (313 days from now)
By all appearances, Beijing will be a long-remembered Games, and will probably set the standard for Olympic events for a generation. Unfortunate timing may tarnish China's gold-medal performance, making the aftermath look like a standard post-Olympic pause. Some argued that, even before the Games started, it was clear that China had already entered a post-Olympics lull.
The three engines powering China's economy -- investment, exports and consumption - have all slowed this year.

What do you forecast the Chinese economy in 2009? Will the Olympic Games help or hurt China?

inspired by:
http://www.businessweek.c...
http://www.edc.ca/english...
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Comments (6)
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  1. ancienthart ancienthart 74 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 80% ] Cooling Down
    (more)
    I imagine that China's economy will still rise after the Olympics, but it won't be the massive burst we've seen over the last few years. From a biological/non-linear dynamics viewpoint, the first burst was when China entered a new economic "region" and had several new opportunities to exploit. (Much like an organism entering a new ecological niche and had lots of food/nutrients to grow explosively with.) This fuelled a rapid growth, but there were probably lots of hidden inefficiencies. E.g. they wanted to use the Olympics as a tourism-attractor, but the behaviour of their police towards the media kinda fought against that.
    Now China is beginning to enter the consolidation phase. In this phase, the economic "organisms" have to remove inefficiencies and consolidate cooperative (symbiotic) links with others in the economy. As Frank Herbert pointed out in his Dune book, the biggest problem for any organism is not availability of resources, but competition with members of your own species.
    At the tail end of the consolidation phase, we'll see a lot of Chinese companies and economic bodies consumed by their more successful brethren, or just plain straight go bankrupt.
  2. Guru Guru 90 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 78% ] Cooling Down
    (more)
    Just like any other hosting countries before China, the post-olympic economy usually go bad before it gets better. Over spending in the games is usually the case. Not sure if the long term benefit is really worth it.
  3. Wallace Wallace 92 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 81% ] Cooling Down
    (more)
    Even the Koreans are not that positive about the post-olympics economy...
    http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/...

    I think they have a point.
  4. freeman freeman 97 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 78% ] Cooling Down
    (more)
    "The three engines powering China's economy -- investment, exports and consumption - have all slowed this year." Like what Canada suggested, the economy depends on what you can produce and sell. Olympics can promote your country, but there is no real short term return.
  5. goog goog 97 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 61% ] Cooling Down
    (more)
    There is always a cool down period after any major international event. Beijing China is no exception.
  6. black-shoulder black-shoulder 97 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 85% ] Cooling Down
    (more)
    China and US are both slowing down economically. Don't forget, China has multi-billions worth of cash invested into many financial service companies in the States, and those companies are all barely alive right now. I say the economy will certainly slow down, but hopefully, will not enter a recession like the US almost certainly is heading.
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