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Voter Demographics: % of Black Voters for McCain?
voteSense ( Score Rank: #319 based on predictions in the last 30 days ) voteSense  |  closed on 04-Nov-2008 (16 days ago)
American voters remain divided by race before a presidential election that will have the first black nominee from a major party on the ballot, a new poll showed on July 13. More than 80% of black voters said they had a favorable opinion of the Obama while 31% of whites said they had a favorable opinion of him. Also Obama leads McCain among Hispanics by 62%. He is viewed favorably by more than half of Hispanics, while McCain's rating is below 25%.

What percentage of BLACK votes will McCain receive?

We will use the CNN exit poll to judge the result. The exit poll of 2004 election is found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/w...

FYI - US dempgraphic of race/ethnicity (2006) (quote: http://en.wikipedia.org/w...)
White 80.1%
African American 12.8%
Asian 4.4%
Native American and Alaskan Native 1.0%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 1.6%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 14.8
ZiiValue
(chance)
Answer
Possible Outcomes
3%
Not enough information to determine the result.
6%
Not enough information to determine the result.
26%
Not enough information to determine the result.
66%
Not enough information to determine the result.
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Comments (5)
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  1. einstin2 einstin2 41 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 93% ] < 10%
    (more)
    I don't support it but I think the vast majority of the black vote will vote for Obama due to the identity politics often played by the democratic side.
  2. Fredster Fredster 75 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Mccain 2008 (considering only demographic and party partisan lines)
    worst case 44.42%
    best case 52.17%
    mccain probrability 48.29%

    2008 will be very close. The independent swing voters have the say in this election.
  3. ancienthart ancienthart 102 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 80% ] < 10%
    (more)
    I not only predict a large voting block of non-Caucasians for Obama (and against McCain), I also predict a larger voter turn-out in that segment of the population.
  4. agentosx agentosx 119 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] < 10%
    (more)
    He'll get single digit figures.
  5. rachel rachel 126 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 75% ] 10% - 30%
    (more)
    80% of US citizens are white. If we assume no black votes for McCain, he needs to get over 60% of white votes. As the latest polls said 31% of whites said they had a favorable opinion of Obama, it should be a easy game for McCain (in consider of the demographic of race/ethnicity alone).

    However, politics is not math, and I don't have education in political science :p
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